2025 Retrospective: From Trust Deficit to the Golden Hedge

The Reserve, our fully owned 180,000 sq ft vault in Singapore

The year 2025 was marked not by a single shock, but by a widespread and shared realisation: the bedrock of the post-war global order—unquestioned trust in institutions, currencies, and singular centres of power—has eroded.

The common theme, from London’s financial halls to Asian sovereign funds, was that the world has irrevocably changed. Long-standing certainties are being re-examined, and diversification into sound money is increasingly viewed as a prudent and rational response.

The United States: From Systemic Anchor to Source of Uncertainty

The most consequential driver of the global reordering has been the United States’ decisive shift toward a more isolationist and unpredictable posture. For much of the world, this has translated into heightened uncertainty. Trade, travel, and financial engagement with what was once the unquestioned global anchor have become riskier.

The continued acceptance of United States Treasuries as a “risk-free” asset is now being quietly questioned. While the United States still dominates Western financial infrastructure, physical goods production is increasingly concentrated in China. A realisation has crept in that, should trade tensions between these two superpowers escalate further, global trading and payment systems must pre-emptively and independently evolve to minimise disruption to the rest of the world.

The response has been an accelerating global effort to diversify away from reliance on the United States-led financial and trading system. Governments and investors are building redundancies: diversifying reserve currencies through gold accumulation, strengthening alternative payment systems, and restructuring trade routes to reduce dependence on a single, increasingly unpredictable centre of gravity. This new form of “sovereign decentralisation” is gaining momentum.

London’s Stance: Navigating Diverging Interests

The prevailing mood of 2025 was encapsulated at the LBMA end-of-year dinner and pre-dinner sessions held in early December in London, which I attended. The keynote speaker, Peter Zoellner—the newly appointed Chairman of the LBMA—stated plainly that the world has undergone a fundamental transformation and that institutions must adapt to a far more complex geopolitical landscape.

Mr Zoellner observed that where geopolitical tensions were once framed as “the West versus China or Russia,” today’s reality is far more nuanced. He now views the United States as pursuing interests increasingly distinct from those of the UK and continental Europe, necessitating a re-evaluation of long-held alignments.

Rooted in an Austrian sound-money tradition—shaped by the experience of two hyperinflations in the past century—he emphasised that continued currency debasement will only reinforce gold’s long-term monetary role. You can view this and other seminars, including a silver update, directly from the LBMA Annual Seminar 2025.

The economist David McWilliams later reinforced this theme at the dinner, warning that trust within the financial system is fragile. He cautioned that we are entering uncharted territory defined by runaway debt and the absence of effective systemic stewardship.

The underlying message was clear: financial stability is increasingly a personal and jurisdictional responsibility, no longer a systemic guarantee that can be taken for granted.

Singapore’s Position: Neutrality Gains Strategic Weight

Singapore occupies a rare position in the global system. It is simultaneously trusted by China, the United States, and their respective allies. This is not ideological neutrality subject to change, but functional neutrality—grounded in consistency, credibility, and utility demonstrated over many decades.

Singapore applies the same principles regardless of whether matters involve China, the United States, or regional neighbours. This predictability makes it a reliable counterparty, even when major powers disagree.

The city-state hosts major Chinese banks, technology firms, and state-owned entities alongside US-headquartered multinational companies and financial institutions, and ranks among the largest foreign investors in both China and the United States. These ties create mutual stakes in Singapore’s stability and neutrality.

Singapore’s courts and arbitral institutions have become preferred venues for international dispute resolution. Chinese entities often trust Singapore’s courts more than Western courts for neutral adjudication, while Western institutions value Singapore’s strong rule of law and regulatory clarity.

The United States views Singapore as a stabilising partner, while China sees it as an independent and reliable counterpart from which it can learn. This relationship is underscored by the fact that many elements of modern China—beginning with the special economic zones of the 1980s—were modelled after Singapore. To this day, prospective mayors of Chinese cities come to Singapore for training.

In an environment where the risks of capital controls, payment-system weaponisation, and sovereign debt stress are rising, wealthy and neutral jurisdictions with strong legal frameworks—such as Singapore—are gaining outsized strategic relevance.

Closing Reflection

As the global order fragments, Singapore remains relevant by being useful to many and threatening to no one. In a divided world, this positioning allows Singapore to remain a trusted platform where capital, trade, and dialogue can continue to function even as geopolitical tensions rise.

As uncertainty increases, precious metals stored in such jurisdictions retain exceptional mobility and acceptance when financial channels become constrained.

At some point, unsustainable Western debt burdens will require painful restructuring. Gold ownership may once again be restricted in Western jurisdictions, and capital controls could prevent timely asset relocation.

As the future becomes less certain, storing some physical gold, silver, and platinum as private property in Singapore—insulated from financial counterparties, currency crises, hyperinflation, and wars—is a prudent precaution.

Find out more on how we can safeguard your wealth - well beyond industry norms.

Wishing you a great new year!

Gregor J. Gregersen