United States might have imposed tariffs of 39% on Swiss gold
Early on August 8th, the Financial Times reported that 1 kg and 100 oz gold bars from Swiss Refiners (which cast about 70% of these gold bars worldwide) would be subject to tariffs when entering the United States.
When digging deeper, it appears that the Customs HS code for gold bullion that determines whether tariffs are imposed or not have been changed from US customs code 7108.12.10 (which is tariff and duty exempt) to 7108.13.5500 which is duty exempt but not tariff exempt.
This re-classification appears to remove the tariff-free status of investment gold entering the United States. It is not clear what the actual tariff rate would be, what kind of gold will be subject to it and to what degree the last casting (origin) jurisdiction matters.
Because the United States recently imposed 39% tariffs on Swiss goods, Swiss gold bars might also be taxed at 39% when entering the United States. Shipping the bars via a third country would likely cause the newly enacted executive order 14257 “Anti-Circumvention” clause to impose an extra 40% penalty.
It is also not that clear to me what goods will fall under “7108.13.5500”. Will 100-gram bars or gold bullion coins be categorized differently and would 24k jewellery be taxed at lower fees than gold bullion?
How would COMEX physical delivery rules be changed to reflect such a reality? US financial institutions typically import 1 kg gold into the United States to deliver physical gold on their paper gold obligations.
What would the role of COMEX be if gold imports face a 39% tax? Would COMEX need to pass on such taxes when physical delivery is required? Would this lead to the United States requiring a local gold price, distinct from the global price of gold?
I believe that the most likely outcome is a U-turn by the US customs and that gold will not be tariffed after all.
If such tariffs were to proceed, would big US banks like JP Morgan be exempt from gold import tariffs the way that Apple is exempt from the newly announced 100% tariff on semiconductor imports?
Such tariffs on gold will have huge impacts on markets and ultimately the United States Dollar. If such tariffs are indeed enforced, we will see many unforeseen consequences over the coming months.
Best regards,
Gregor J. Gregersen